Football (Soccer) Betting Strategy - Discover Winning by Picking Draws

There are punters who like the 'draw' market as it pays well. One common argument among these 'draw' punters is "Are draws independent of form, that is, are they random?". There are two views :

* One view is that draws are independent of previous results, that each match is different. These punters do not accept the theory that a draw is due just because it has not happened for a long time. They believe that the match outcome depends on circumstances and conditions of that particular game, for example : attacking and defending capabilities of both teams, weather on that day, pitch condition, etc.

* There are opposing punters who feel strongly that the probability of draws depends on the previous games, that it boils down to the psychology and mentality of the players of the 'drawish' teams.

Irrespective of whatever camp these draw specialists are in, all of them agree that draw bets are more worthwhile compared to betting Home or Away as the average odds are more attractive.

In picking winning 'draws', the following factors are to be considered :

1) It is essential to choose the teams instead of choosing the matches, that draw is largely due to the style of play, such as :

* Defensive style and struggling to attack will tend to draw more.

* Attacking formation and tactics will not draw too often.

2) If a certain team draws a few matches, analyse why :

* Does the team have problems scoring? If yes, why. (Is the key striker injured?)

* Is the team renowned for tight defence?

* Is it psychological? Maybe a team on a long losing run may try harder just to get at least a point, that is, a draw.

3) The following trends in matches ending with a draw are common :

* Matches where both teams are happy with a point, for example, a draw is sufficient for both to avoid relegation or to qualify for a cup competition.

* Matches played in poor weather conditions like heavy rain which usually lead to less goals and higher chance for a draw.

* Derby matches where a draw may satisfy both parties.

* Home team in great form against Away team in strong top table position.

4) Teams which draw a lot with each other repeatedly could mean :

* They are equal in strength.

* There is some kind of psychological impact that it is tough for one of them to break the other down.

5) Do take note of the following :

* If a team has been drawing a lot, and if it has appointed a new manager, wait a few matches to determine if this team is still drawing frequently.

* Be cautious with newly promoted and newly relegated teams where performance can be erratic.

* Teams improving in form which may be more likely to draw playing Away.

Conclusion

Some leagues appear to have either a higher or lower percentage of draws compared to others. This could be due to the characteristics of the leagues in terms of competitiveness, or even prevalence of match fixing. This is why some bookmakers do not offer odds on certain minor European league matches at the end of the season.

Stanley Ong is a Chartered Accountant with extensive experience in football betting. Football has been his passion since young.

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